Natural Resources Governance

Natural Resources Governance

Risk Identification & Assessment with the Fuzzy DEMATEL- Delphi Method in Aquaculture Projects (Case Study: Mehrgan Fishing Town of Hormozgan Province)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Fatemeh Saghafi 1
mohammad reza taghizadeh yazdi 2
seyedeh shafei 1
mohammad hossein tahari-mehrjardi 3
1 Department of Systems Management & Decision Sciences, Faculty of Technology & Industrial Management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Production Management & Operations, Faculty of Technology & Industrial Management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Department of Industrial Management, College of Humanities, Meybod University, Yazd, Iran.
10.22059/jnrg.2026.404201.1059
Abstract
Aquaculture projects, due to their unique characteristics, inherent complexities, and uncertain environments, are associated with numerous uncertainties. Therefore, identifying and assessing the risks of aquaculture projects is of great importance. Given the significance of risk management, the present study aims to identify the risks of aquaculture projects using the Fuzzy Delphi method and subsequently determine the causal relationships among these risks and their weights through the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. Accordingly, in the first stage, the major risks of aquaculture projects were identified using the Fuzzy Delphi method, and in the second stage, the relationships among the risks and their prioritization were analyzed using the Fuzzy DEMATEL approach. This research is applied in terms of its objective, as it supports managerial decision-making. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts knowledgeable about aquaculture and the project under investigation in the Iranian Fisheries Organization. Data were collected through literature review, interviews, and questionnaires. In the analysis phase, six main risks and eighteen sub-risks were confirmed based on expert opinions using the Fuzzy Delphi method. In the second phase, the causal relationships and weights of the selected risks were determined using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. According to the findings, among the main risks, managerial and resource-related risk ranked first with a weight of 0.3024, followed by infrastructure risk with a weight of 0.2719, and economic risk with a weight of 0.1857. Based on these findings, adopting strategies such as strengthening infrastructure, improving management and operational performance, developing precise engineering plans, enhancing human resource capacity, managing energy and water resources efficiently, utilizing modern technologies, diversifying markets, and reducing dependence on external factors is essential for controlling and mitigating the identified risks.
Keywords
Aquaculture
Project Risk Management
Risk Identification
Fuzzy Delphi
Fuzzy DEMANTEL
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Natural Resources Governance
Volume 2, Issue 4
Autumn 2025
Pages 380-397