Objective: This study examines the institutional and political mechanisms underlying the failure of Lake Urmia restoration programs and explains the persistence of non-cooperation among water governance actors. It investigates why collective action remains difficult despite extensive restoration efforts. Method: Adopting a qualitative, interpretive–explanatory approach, the study uses game theory as an analytical framework. Data were collected through 16 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with key actors at national, provincial, and local levels, and a separate group discussion involving 20 rural women participating in restoration initiatives. Purposive maximum-variation sampling was employed. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis and process tracing to identify behavioral patterns and reconstruct policy decisions, strategic responses, and implementation outcomes. Results: Six interconnected factors undermine cooperation: policy instability, short-term interests, securitization, institutional fragmentation, weak enforcement, and politicization. These factors weaken credible commitments and mutual trust, increase the costs of unilateral cooperation, and reduce the costs of non-compliance. Consequently, the governance system reflects a suboptimal Nash equilibrium in which non-cooperation appears individually rational in the short term but produces collectively damaging outcomes. Zero-sum perceptions of the relationship between livelihoods and environmental protection further constrain collective action. Conclusions: Sustainable restoration requires more than technical interventions. It depends on institutional reforms that strengthen legally binding commitments, enforcement, and accountability. Establishing an independent cross-sectoral regulatory mechanism, providing equitable compensation for transition costs, and ensuring meaningful local participation can create more credible incentives for cooperation and support long-term restoration.
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Pourghanbar, M. & Dinparasti, F. (2026). Analyzing Water Governance Failure in the Restoration of Lake Urmia: An Explanation Based on Game Theory. Natural Resources Governance, 3(3), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.22059/jnrg.2026.416061.1111
MLA
Pourghanbar, M., & Dinparasti, F. "Analyzing Water Governance Failure in the Restoration of Lake Urmia: An Explanation Based on Game Theory", Natural Resources Governance, 3, 3, 2026, 1–28. doi: 10.22059/jnrg.2026.416061.1111
HARVARD
Pourghanbar, M., & Dinparasti, F. (2026). 'Analyzing Water Governance Failure in the Restoration of Lake Urmia: An Explanation Based on Game Theory', Natural Resources Governance, 3(3), pp. 1–28. doi: 10.22059/jnrg.2026.416061.1111
CHICAGO
Pourghanbar, M. & Dinparasti, F., "Analyzing Water Governance Failure in the Restoration of Lake Urmia: An Explanation Based on Game Theory." Natural Resources Governance, 3 3 (2026): 1–28, doi: 10.22059/jnrg.2026.416061.1111
VANCOUVER
Pourghanbar M., Dinparasti F. Analyzing Water Governance Failure in the Restoration of Lake Urmia: An Explanation Based on Game Theory. Nat. Resour. Governance. 2026;3(3):1–28 (In Persian). doi: 10.22059/jnrg.2026.416061.1111
