Exploring the Dimensions of Adaptive and Participatory Water Governance for Enhancing Resilience and Risk Management through a Foresight-Based Approach

Adaptive and participatory water governance always faces numerous challenges, including climate change, increasing demand for limited resources, and inefficiencies in management systems. This study adopts an innovative approach by employing SWOT matrix analysis, followed by strategic prioritization using the QSPM method, and integrating cross-impact analysis with the foresight-oriented MICMAC model to assess participatory water governance. The research proposes strategies to enhance resilience and improve risk management in this domain. The SWOT analysis identified several strengths, such as the presence of active civil society institutions, successful experiences in water governance, and the use of modern technologies. Opportunities included the expansion of international cooperation and the growth of social networks. Conversely, weaknesses such as the lack of comprehensive legal frameworks, poor institutional coordination, and limited financial resources were noted, alongside threats including unjust privatization of water resources and growing agricultural dependence on water. The findings from the MICMAC foresight model indicate that financing early warning infrastructure and developing local alert systems are key actions for strengthening resilience. Moreover, social networks and public awareness campaigns play a vital role in increasing public engagement and raising awareness. Accordingly, strategies such as establishing inter-agency working groups, leveraging advanced technologies for water monitoring, and enhancing local educational programs are recommended. The analysis highlights that the success of adaptive and participatory water governance depends on effective collaboration among governmental institutions, civil society, and international organizations. The adoption of advanced technologies, the development of sustainable infrastructure, and the strengthening of local capacities are critical elements in achieving a resilient and sustainable governance system. These approaches can significantly contribute to addressing water crises and enhancing the long-term sustainability of water resources.