Analysis of Climate Change and Its Implications for Natural Resource Governance: An Integrated Approach Using LARS-WG and SWOT

Climate change is a paramount challenge confronting socio-ecological systems in Iran, exerting both direct and indirect impacts on natural resource governance, particularly concerning water and agricultural resources. This research aimed to investigate climate change and its ramifications for natural resource management by collecting daily temperature (minimum and maximum), precipitation, and sunshine hours data from the Mahabad meteorological station for the historical period of 1986 to 2014 from the National Meteorological Organization. Subsequently, the LARS-WG downscaling model was employed, utilizing outputs from five general circulation models (ACCESS-ESM1-5, CNRM-CM6-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and MRI-ESM2-0) under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) to simulate climatic conditions for the future period of 2021 to 2040. To enhance prediction accuracy, model weighting was conducted based on the deviation of simulated data from observed values during the baseline period. The results indicate an approximate 8% increase in average maximum temperature and about a 20% increase in average minimum temperature, while the average annual precipitation is projected to decrease by approximately 13%. These changes, particularly with reduced summer precipitation and significant winter fluctuations, pose serious implications for natural resource governance, including increased pressure on surface and groundwater resources, diminished sustainability of rain-fed agriculture, threats to food security, and an elevated risk of winter floods. A SWOT analysis revealed that alongside these substantial threats, opportunities exist, such as developing modern irrigation systems, modifying cultivation patterns, and leveraging the capacity of Mahabad Dam for water storage. The findings of this research can thus provide a scientific foundation for adaptive policymaking and strengthening socio-ecological resilience in the sustainable management of the region's natural resources.