Assessment of the First to Seventh Development Plans of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Addressing Climate Change: Application of the Institutional Adaptive Capacity Wheel

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Social Business Institute, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study aims to assess the institutional adaptability of the Islamic Republic of Iran's First through Seventh Development Plans in confronting climate change challenges, utilizing the “Adaptive Capacity Wheel” model. Document analysis reveals that climate governance in Iran has followed a contradictory historical trend. Early development plans (First and Second) suffered from profound structural weaknesses, particularly in the dimensions of Learning Capacity and Self-Adaptive Response Capacity, yielding overall negative scores (−0.81 and −0.73, respectively). This structural inefficiency persisted through the Fifth and Sixth Development Plans. However, the Seventh Development Plan (with an overall score of 0.06) marks a positive turning point. This leap stems from significant improvements in Learning Capacity (0.30) and Self-Adaptive Response Capacity (0.38), indicating the formation of new institutional mechanisms and greater readiness for prudent decision-making and initiative. Conversely, the Resources dimension, with a score of −0.46, has been consistently weakened, remaining the greatest obstacle to the effective implementation of policies. Furthermore, the Fair Governance dimension requires further strengthening in terms of transparency and public participation. The results emphasize the necessity of addressing this structural inconsistency through the sustainable allocation of resources, enhanced transparency and participation, and the institutionalization of continuous learning to transform Iran's climate governance into an integrated and flexible system.

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